The video games are nonetheless weeks away and the practices have not even began, however the 2026-27 NBA season is quick approaching.
Now that just about all the league’s essential offseason transactions have concluded, and now that the season preview machine is revving up its engines, it is time to take a primary broad have a look at the upcoming panorama. It is too early to conduct a precise 1-to-30 rating, however we will place every workforce into a bigger tier primarily based on its anticipated standing.
Let’s begin with the primary of eight tiers, that includes the three finest groups within the league. (Observe: Groups are ordered alphabetically inside their tiers.)
Bounce to a tier:
The championship favorites
The flawed West contenders
Win machines | Excessive upside
The Southeast Goldilocks tier
Potential play-in contributors
Not aggressive: Div. A | Div. B
Championship favorites
New York Knicks
Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder
San Antonio Spurs
This trio proved to be the highest tier of groups final season, and the Knicks, Thunder and Spurs had been the one ones to win a recreation within the convention finals. And so they’re nonetheless in a tier unto themselves. The group will collectively return 14 of the 15 starters in 2026-27, with All-Defensive wing Luguentz Dort (traded from OKC to Atlanta) the one exception.
All three groups enter the brand new season with championship expectations, and all three are eminently able to attaining that aim. The Knicks and Thunder are the 2 most up-to-date winners, and the Spurs reached the Finals a lot sooner than anticipated in June, earlier than including a stable veteran in Tobias Harris over the summer time.
Flawed West contenders
Denver Nuggets
Houston Rockets
Los Angeles Lakers
Minnesota Timberwolves
These 4 groups completed within the 3-to-6 spots within the Western Convention final season, and so they’re projected to repeat that feat this marketing campaign. Every franchise, nonetheless, took a unique method to the offseason.
The Lakers and Timberwolves largely remade their rosters round a few stars. The Lakers imported a handful of free brokers, led by middle Walker Kessler, whereas the Wolves traded for LaMelo Ball and signed Jonathan Kuminga. However dropping LeBron James and the Julius Randle/Naz Reid combo, respectively, might pressure each groups’ ahead rotations, making their offseason transactions high-risk, high-reward endeavors.
Conversely, the Nuggets and Rockets principally stood pat, with their solely roster modifications coming to the bench, most notably Denver’s lack of Peyton Watson; though Houston would argue the return of Fred VanVleet, who missed all of final season, is the most important improve. The Rockets additionally prolonged ahead Amen Thompson to a five-year deal final week, making certain his future with the workforce’s younger core of Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason.
Common-season win machines
Boston Celtics
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Boston, Cleveland and Detroit represented three of the highest 4 Japanese Convention groups within the 2025-26 common season, and all three ought to stay within the 50-plus-win vary regardless of the convention’s increase in total depth. The Celtics had the most important personnel lack of the group with the Jaylen Brown commerce, however in addition they ought to profit from a full season of Jayson Tatum, after he performed solely 16 video games final season.
The larger query for this threesome, nonetheless, is how a lot postseason upside there may be, even when every workforce lands one other excessive playoff seed. The Celtics appeared to lose some championship fairness after they traded their current Finals MVP, coming off the very best season of his profession.
After taking the East’s No. 1 seed final season, the Pistons did not tackle their biggest weak point this summer time, as they nonetheless lack secondary scoring behind Cade Cunningham. And as of this writing, All-NBA middle Jalen Duren stays unsigned in restricted free company.
And at last, whereas the Cavaliers took an enormous, crucial swing by buying and selling a bunch of depth (and an unprotected first-round decide) for Peyton Watson, it is nonetheless unclear whether or not a backcourt constructed round two extraordinarily offense-first guards in Donovan Mitchell and James Harden can maintain up within the playoff strain cooker. The Cavs took a step ahead by making the East finals, earlier than getting swept by the Knicks. Watson hasn’t proved himself in a postseason setting, both, after lacking the 2025-26 playoffs because of harm.
Excessive-upside Finals contenders
Indiana Pacers
Miami Warmth
Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors
It is unclear whether or not any of those groups, all of which received 46 video games or fewer final season, will break into the highest 4 within the East standings. However they nonetheless have important playoff upside as a result of there may be a lot mixed star energy: Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Kawhi Leonard (presumably) and Scottie Barnes.
There is a cheap argument for every workforce to achieve the Finals, so long as one essential what if goes the correct approach. The Pacers might return to the Finals if Haliburton performs like his former self in his return from an Achilles tendon tear. The Warmth might attain the Finals if Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. present sufficient capturing and supplemental offense across the frontcourt stars. The 76ers might attain the Finals if the celebrities mesh and Embiid is recent in April and Could. And the Raptors might attain the Finals if Leonard, Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles lead the convention’s finest protection.
Stable Southeast squads
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic
These Southeast Division rivals occupy their very own kind of Goldilocks tier: Their ceiling is just too low to slot in any of the sooner teams, however their flooring is just too excessive to go any later.
Their similarities prolong additional than that:
They completed in shut proximity to one another final season, as Atlanta received 46 video games and Orlando received 45, and each threatened to tug off a playoff upset earlier than fading. And each made significant offseason upgrades, because the Hawks traded for Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins, whereas the Magic employed new coach Sean Sweeney in an try to show all of their potential into higher manufacturing.
1:11
Warriors GM ‘assured’ Steph Curry will end profession in Golden State
Potential play-in contributors
Charlotte Hornets
Dallas Mavericks
Golden State Warriors
Memphis Grizzlies
New Orleans Pelicans
Phoenix Suns
Portland Path Blazers
Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards
The biggest tier options groups that might conceivably end close to the underside of the standings but additionally might sneak into the playoffs.
Within the East, Charlotte might take a step again this season after its scorching end to the 2025-26 marketing campaign. Buying and selling LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges might need been the very best transfer for the franchise’s final long-term plans, however Ball, particularly, was integral to the workforce’s run final season. Within the crowded East race, it would not be a shock for the Hornets to complete exterior of the highest 10.
The Wizards are trying to crash that occasion — and will achieve this, if Trae Younger, Anthony Davis and No. 1 decide AJ Dybantsa all mesh and keep wholesome. However they’ve a protracted option to climb after successful simply 15, 18 and 17 video games throughout the previous three seasons, and full well being from Davis is way from assured.
The biggest takeaway from this tier comes out West, although, the place the race seems extremely jumbled after the highest six.
Phoenix and Portland each reached the playoffs final season, although neither appears to boost a really excessive ceiling. New Path Blazers coach Micah Nori must combine a newly star-studded but injury-prone backcourt that includes Damian Lillard and Ja Morant. In the meantime, Golden State did not make any splashes this offseason and can await Jimmy Butler III’s return from a torn ACL.
Elsewhere, the Mavericks and Jazz might surge up the standings due to full seasons from Kyrie Irving and Jaren Jackson Jr., respectively, in addition to additional growth from Dallas’ Cooper Flagg and Utah’s younger guards. New Orleans received solely 26 video games final season and did not do a lot past including Bennedict Mathurin this summer time, however there may be nonetheless loads of expertise — Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones — on its roster.
Lastly, do not sleep on Memphis, with its sneaky upside. Ty Jerome and Zach Edey had been wonderful in restricted enjoying time final season, and No. 3 decide Cameron Boozer might present immediate affect, at the same time as a rookie. If all three gamers keep wholesome, the Grizzlies might method a .500 file.
Noncompetitive, with their very own decide
Chicago Bulls
Sacramento Kings
The ultimate two tiers occupy the identical broad area within the standings, because the 5 groups inside them are unlikely to contend this season. However one key distinction separates Chicago and Sacramento from the ultimate trio: The Bulls and Kings possess their very own 2027 first-rounder, which implies they’re incentivized to win sufficient video games to maximise their lottery odds, as a result of new guidelines that penalize the groups with the three worst data within the league.
The Bulls needs to be adequate to keep away from that destiny, after including veterans Norman Powell and Nic Claxton within the offseason; though Chicago’s main aim needs to be growing the younger frontcourt duo of Matas Buzelis and rookie Caleb Wilson.
In the meantime, Sacramento hopes a full season of Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and Keegan Murray — after the trio mixed to play simply 81 video games final season — will increase its win complete out of the so-called relegation zone, although the Kings’ eyes are set on a future led by rookie guard Darius Acuff Jr.
Noncompetitive, with out their very own decide
Brooklyn Nets
LA Clippers
Milwaukee Bucks
In contrast to the Bulls and Kings, these ultimate three groups will not even reap the rewards of their very own subpar file subsequent spring: The Nets owe a decide swap to Houston, the Clippers owe a decide swap to Oklahoma Metropolis and the Bucks owe their first-rounder outright to both Atlanta or New Orleans.
Counterintuitively, these offers might make tanking extra doubtless from this trio, as a result of they should not care if their traded picks’ lottery odds are depressed. Nonetheless, there’s sufficient expertise right here to make 60-plus losses pretty unlikely.
Brooklyn added Julius Randle whereas retaining Michael Porter Jr. The Clippers have two current All-Stars in Darius Garland and Brandon Ingram (assuming the Kawhi Leonard deal goes by). The Bucks misplaced Giannis Antetokounmpo, after all, however they now have a half dozen high quality guards on their roster, together with former All-Star Tyler Herro in a contract 12 months.
