Resolution 4.0 is lastly full, with LeBron James taking his skills to the Philadelphia 76ers for his twenty fourth (and presumably twenty fifth) NBA seasons. NBA free company, which had been on unofficial maintain till James made his new group identified, can lastly get again underway.
Based mostly on their present roster, the 76ers are a possible beginning 5 of Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, James and Joel Embiid. On paper, that may be a powerhouse lineup, however the 76ers’ finish sport is to win their first NBA championship since 1983 … the 12 months earlier than James was born. Which means there can be a premium positioned on making an attempt to have the group wholesome for the playoffs. Which in flip implies that, throughout the regular-season 82-game marathon, the 76ers are very more likely to lean extra closely on their youthful, more healthy stars than on their pair of former MVPs.
Since successful his final championship in 2020, James has performed in 74% of the accessible regular-season video games, or about 61 video games per 12 months. Since successful his MVP in 2023, Embiid has performed in 39% of the accessible regular-season video games; 32 video games per 12 months. If these charges held true we’d anticipate to see James and Embiid on the court docket collectively for fewer than 25 regular-season video games this season. Which might make it affordable to undertaking this 76ers squad 3 ways: with James and Embiid, with James however with out Embiid, and with out James.
The Sixers with James and Embiid
When all 5 starters are wholesome, the 76ers would have 5 sturdy scorers on the ground. Edgecombe is coming off a superb rookie season wherein he confirmed particular 20-plus PPG potential, and all 4 different starters have averaged greater than 28 PPG not less than as soon as previously 4 seasons. However there’s just one ball, so clearly everybody cannot rating at that degree on the identical time. The obvious participant to step again his scoring and play extra of a facilitating function is James, who simply confirmed the flexibility and willingness to take action for the Lakers final season subsequent to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. James can also be the very best pure playmaker on the 76ers, so him taking over a task with fewer pictures and extra distributing would lead to assists for James in addition to larger subject objective percentages for the remainder of the starters.
The opposite main, new addition to this group is Brown. Along with being a serious scorer, Brown additionally historically likes to attain within the midrange, comparable areas to the place Embiid likes to function. When Embiid is offered, he probably takes precedence on offense as a result of his measurement and talents are such a mismatch versus any opponent. And, at this level in his profession, Embiid must make his affect extra on offense since he would not have the constant explosiveness to be the defensive and rebounding difference-maker he as soon as was. The upshot of this dynamic is that, when all 5 are wholesome, Embiid’s dominance from midrange and in probably pushes the opposite starters to assault extra from the perimeter.
Put these two dynamics collectively, and I image Maxey, Brown and Embiid as mid-20s scorers with James and Edgecombe within the mid-teens. James and Maxey may each common 6-plus assists, protecting the offense transferring sufficient for everybody to shoot properly from the sector. James and Embiid probably lead the group in rebounds, although each Brown and Edgecombe might be stable rebounders from the wing as properly. And all 4 non-Embiid starters may common two or extra 3PG, with Embiid over 1 3PG himself.
The Sixers with James and with out Embiid
Based mostly on the present roster, Adem Bona would undertaking to start out at middle when Embiid is out. Bona is a stable function participant, extra of a defender/rebounder than a scorer. So, with Embiid out, there can be extra pictures accessible and extra space within the midrange-in from which the remainder of the 76ers may function. This may enable James to perform as a hub from the publish extra usually, creating reducing alternatives for Brown and Edgecombe. And every of Maxey, Brown and Edgecombe would have extra space to function midrange-in as scorers with Maxey specifically in a position to make use of dribble penetration to create for each himself and teammates.
Statistically, the largest distinction on this situation is probably going a slight uptick in scoring alternative for the 4 different starters. I’d nonetheless see Brown and Maxey as mid-20s scorers, however perhaps upper-mid versus lower-mid. I may see Edgecombe’s scoring rising probably the most, together with his youthful aggressiveness getting him up nearer to round 20 PPG whereas James will get extra into the higher teenagers.
The Sixers with out James
When James is not on the court docket, Maxey goes again to being the first offensive creator. When Embiid is on the market, he has proven he could be a secondary offensive hub, however when he does he’s a scorer first and a passer second. The ball would probably be extra sticky all the best way round with out James on the market, which may result in decrease subject objective percentages for the opposite gamers. The opposite massive ahead alternative choices are extra function gamers, however (notably when Embiid is offered) the 76ers may transfer Brown to the 4 and play with an additional man on the perimeter. And sixth man Anfernee Simons is a scorer that’s more likely to shoot at an analogous price to James.
Statistically, I’d see Maxey and Brown as mid-20s-plus scorers on this lineup with out James and Embiid, however lower-mid-20s scorers with Embiid within the mid- to upper-20s when the large fella is on the court docket. Maxey and Embiid each see upticks in assists on this situation.
The fantasy backside line
James becoming a member of the 76ers is a serious boon to the group’s NBA championship aspirations, however on the entire, it probably negatively impacts the fantasy outlook for all concerned. In every of the three eventualities I laid out, there are simply fewer pictures accessible even with James taking part in an attenuated, assist function. With that stated, all 5 starters would nonetheless be fantasy affect gamers primarily based upon their availability.
Maxey goes from doubtlessly prime 12 to extra like prime 25 in each factors and class leagues. Brown slides to prime 40. Edgecombe to prime 75 in factors leagues, nonetheless prime 100 in classes.
James and Embiid are the toughest to undertaking due to the supply questions, however these questions have been there earlier than as we speak’s choice. Say that James slides within the rankings from prime 40 to prime 60ish … I would nonetheless have hassle believing he’d final into the fifth spherical of most leagues until there is a full-on announcement that he plans to take a serious step again, but when he does play solely 60ish video games because the third or fourth possibility, prime 60 might be beneficiant. And Embiid stays a top-25 participant when he is on the court docket, however extra like a borderline top-100 choose if he continues to play in fewer than 40% of the accessible video games.
