The standard of a traditionally good freshman class has stored pleasure excessive across the 2026 NBA draft, as mirrored by the habits of a number of groups doing every part of their energy to lose video games and pivot towards improved lottery odds.
In 2017, a file 11 freshmen had been chosen among the many 14 lottery picks. This yr’s group will problem and probably break that mark: The 9 prospects atop ESPN’s rankings are all freshmen, with 5 others inside the highest 20 inside hanging distance. All of them, save for giant man Hannes Steinbach (Washington), are projected to make the NCAA event, making this one of the prospect-heavy fields ever.
Whether or not you’ve got adopted the draft all yr otherwise you’re simply now tuning in for March, this is the place the highest freshman prospects stand, what they’ve left to realize within the ultimate stretch of the season and the most important questions surrounding their draft profile.
Darryn Peterson, PG/SG, Kansas
Newest rank: 1
Age: 19.1
The season up to now: Peterson is the draft’s most gifted shot creator and a top-flight perimeter shooter, giving him the best offensive ceiling of anybody within the class. Consequently, he was considered by many across the NBA because the front-runner for the No. 1 choose coming into the season. However nothing has gone in accordance with plan for him at Kansas, as he has battled damage and sickness and confronted criticism for the intermittent nature of his availability. Peterson has performed 27.9 minutes per sport whereas beginning 19 of the Jayhawks’ 30 video games, with bouts of cramping at instances stopping him from ending them.
There aren’t many holes in Peterson’s ability set, nevertheless. Scouts with whom I’ve spoken have not expressed main questions round his passing or explosiveness, traits they really feel have been restricted by his function in Kansas’ offensive scheme and inconsistent well being. The character of the scenario has made issues rather more fascinating than anticipated.
The massive query: How robust is Peterson’s maintain on the No. 1 spot?
The shortage of concrete details about Peterson’s well being has left NBA groups with extra questions than solutions. Amid the general public negativity, scouts and execs I’ve talked to have constantly emphasised the necessity for persistence, as there will not be a full referendum on his well being till NBA groups obtain his medical stories on the mix.
There stays lots of NBA assist for Peterson because the draft’s most proficient prospect, however his freshman season has added complexity to the choice at No. 1. Draft night time will finally come all the way down to the danger tolerance of whichever workforce wins the lottery and the way that workforce views Peterson’s trajectory. There was little or no query about his skill, but it surely should outweigh the well being issue, notably with AJ Dybantsa presenting a viable and simpler different.
Peterson has performed 30-plus minutes in 4 straight video games, however he has shot simply 32% in that stretch. If he can get proper, a powerful, wholesome March would function a reminder of why a lot of the league was head over heels for him coming into the autumn. One of the simplest ways for Peterson to reclaim his personal narrative is by enjoying nicely.
AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU
Newest rank: 2
Age: 19.1
The season up to now: Dybantsa put collectively a wonderful February and has proven a great deal of development, answering among the questions surrounding his decision-making, shot choice and soar capturing. He is arguably probably the most bodily gifted prospect within the class, a dynamic slasher averaging 26.2 factors, 6.4 rebounds and three.8 assists by way of 17 Large 12 video games and main the league in scoring. As scouts have zeroed in on his soar capturing, Dybantsa has been taking 3s with extra confidence, capturing a satisfactory 34.7% from vary. He has made higher selections and proven extra assertiveness because the season has gone on.
On his finest nights, Dybantsa very a lot seems the a part of a No.1-caliber prospect, presenting as a powerful possibility atop the draft and probably a extra dependable, protected alternative primarily based on the best way Peterson’s season has gone. Due to his measurement and bodily items, many NBA scouts consider Dybantsa’s two-way upside is the best within the class.
The massive query: How else can Dybantsa strengthen his case at No. 1?
Dybantsa has already achieved fairly a bit to shut the hole, and with Richie Saunders out for the rest of the season, he has been requested to do much more. Nevertheless, the Cougars have misplaced 4 of their previous 5 and are backpedaling into the postseason. He’ll be requested to assist them flip issues round on a giant stage. He’ll assist his case if he may flip up the dial defensively, an space the place he has important potential, however will be selectively engaged. A few of that’s due partially to his heavy offensive workload, but it surely will not harm to remind NBA execs of his upside on that finish of the ground, with a 7-foot wingspan and the power to match up throughout.
The race for No. 1 is shaping up as an eye-of-the-beholder resolution for whichever workforce wins the lottery. If Dybantsa continues to play at a excessive degree and may place himself as a safer different to Peterson with equally excessive upside, it ought to assist his case. NBA groups are splitting hairs behind the scenes.
Cameron Boozer, F/C, Duke
Newest rank: 3
Age: 18.6
The season up to now: Boozer has lived as much as lofty preseason expectations, backing up his long-held fame as a driver of profitable basketball. His consistency and historic productiveness — he is on tempo to interrupt Zion Williamson’s file for field plus-minus, in accordance with the analytics web site BartTorvik.com — because the youngest prospect on this group dominates projection fashions. There is a good case to be made for him as probably the most NBA-ready participant within the class, as the principle drive behind 28-2 Duke’s elite offense. Scouts have in contrast him to All-Star-level gamers similar to Domantas Sabonis, Kevin Love and Al Horford, with an opportunity to develop into an excellent greater star contemplating his age (he is among the many youngest prospects within the draft) and statistical output.
Though Boozer is usually described as a submit participant, it is his skill to face the basket, make fast selections, make performs for teammates and stretch the ground (40.4% from 3) that make him a particular offensive engine. A lot of his worth really comes on the perimeter, the place he is devastating in two-man actions and has the power to bully mismatches. The deeper Boozer can carry the Blue Devils into March, the longer he’ll make the argument for himself because the most secure choose within the draft.
Boozer is having the perfect season of the highest three prospects, and he is the one one carrying a workforce with reasonable title hopes. For all his dominance, although, he is monitoring towards being the third title off the board in June.
The massive query: Why is not Boozer a front-runner ?
Boozer’s offensive acumen is unquestionable, the place he tasks as a flexible, high-impact operator out of the field. The holdup for NBA evaluators has been the bodily element of his sport, as he lacks explosiveness, does not defend the rim at a excessive degree and sometimes struggles to get out onto shooters due to his foot pace — issues that are inclined to get focused within the NBA postseason. Though he has a 7-foot wingspan at 6-foot-9, he lacks a pronounced top benefit for a giant man and is not fast sufficient to constantly guard the wing. Boozer’s wonderful positioning and instincts should prop up his worth on that facet of the ball.
Whereas it seems much less probably that Boozer winds up at No. 1, it will not be shocking to see him draw lengthy seems at that spot in sure eventualities. For instance, an analytically minded workforce such because the Memphis Grizzlies might strongly take into account him atop its board. If the LA Clippers’ choose belonging to the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder makes an unbelievable leap to No. 1, the Thunder — rife with perimeter expertise — could be a workforce with the posh to prioritize match, and Boozer could possibly be a pure complement subsequent to Chet Holmgren.
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Caleb Wilson, PF, North Carolina
Newest rank: 4
Age: 19.6
The season up to now: Wilson’s breakout season hit the skids when he fractured his hand on Feb. 10, however he has already made fairly an impression, solidifying himself as a top-five prospect who can impression play on the inside along with his exercise and explosiveness, whereas additionally possessing untapped ability potential. He is working towards a return in March, with the Tar Heels headed again to the NCAA event, giving NBA groups one final have a look at him in a high-pressure atmosphere.
Exceptionally fast off the ground, Wilson has dominated largely because of how arduous he performs, profitable additional possessions on the glass and ending successfully inside 15 toes (72% on the rim with 67 dunks, and capturing 61% contained in the arc). Wilson remains to be uncooked as a ball handler and never a dependable 3-point shooter. Envisioning his upside includes extra projection than his friends. He has an out of doors probability of breaking into the highest three, nevertheless, relying on which groups transfer up within the lottery.
The massive query: What is the argument for Wilson within the high three?
Wilson remains to be scratching the floor from a ability perspective, and his projection as a top-three choose requires a little bit of creativeness, which makes for a polarizing analysis. He is the kind of bouncy athlete who might develop right into a matchup drawback on each ends of the ground, with plus passing instincts and shot creation prowess for his measurement whereas working within the midrange. An absolute best-case situation could be a soar in his ability units that lets him higher harness his 6-foot-10 body as a mismatch creator, whereas additionally protecting constant consideration on the defensive finish, bettering his positioning and changing into a real plus on each ends of the ground.
Some NBA evaluators fee Wilson forward of Boozer primarily based on these potential upside outcomes, valuing how his vertical explosiveness and shot blocking might translate into two-way impression. Boozer is the way more polished participant, however a workforce seeking to construct a extra athletic, defensively versatile frontline might have a look at Wilson and take an opportunity on his growth.
(Be aware: Wilson broke his proper thumb in a non-contact drill in apply Thursday and has undergone season-ending surgical procedure, in accordance with ESPN’s Shams Charania)
Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston
Newest rank: 5
Age: 19.2
The season up to now: Flemings entered the season with modest hype, rated because the Twenty second-best participant in his class on the SC Subsequent Prime 100. That modified shortly as NBA groups obtained eyes on Houston, with a sequence of robust performances propelling him towards the highest of the board. His explosive burst, skill to navigate to spots, imaginative and prescient as a passer and management qualities have all been evident, as he has develop into the perfect participant on a workforce that made the NCAA title sport in 2025.
Whereas Flemings’ blistering early-season effectivity has come again to earth, the thrill round his upside stays, with elite change of tempo and the power to play above the rim giving him a shot at stardom. Houston has an actual probability at one other Ultimate 4 run and can want him at his finest to do it, giving him a platform to state his case in March because the potential second guard off the board.
The massive query: How actual is Flemings’ capturing leap?
Bounce capturing was the first space of concern for Flemings popping out of highschool, notably from 3-point vary, the place his unorthodox mechanics are difficult to undertaking. Now at 48%/37%/84% capturing splits on the season, Flemings has carried out nicely above expectation, however his launch is extra of a one-motion ahead fling that includes added movement in his elbow and arms. He’s rather more snug within the midrange, the place his pure contact and talent to raise and separate from defenders shine. However it’s troublesome to be an elite NBA playmaker with out the power to maintain defenders trustworthy from lengthy vary, and Flemings should preserve proving it to entry his upside.
Life has gotten a bit harder for Flemings these days, as Houston’s different perimeter gamers have struggled to make photographs, enabling defenses to load up within the paint and attempt to shrink his area. If the opposite Cougars can get going offensively, it’s going to assist his probabilities of a full breakout within the postseason. No matter how Flemings fares in March, nevertheless, NBA groups will zero in on his capturing in exercises as they separate the guards in his tier of this class.
Keaton Wagler, PG/SG, Illinois
Newest rank: 6
Age: 19.1
The season up to now: Wagler is among the draft’s finest particular person tales, as he has gone from a three-star recruit with no nationwide profile to an irreplaceable fixture at Illinois, vaulting himself into the lottery combine because the chief of a top-10 workforce. There was loads of buzz about Wagler within the fall from scouts who went to see Illinois apply, however no person would have predicted the extent of his breakout, with a 46-point sport at Purdue on Jan. 24 his coming-out get together.
As a 6-foot-6 level guard, Wagler’s skill to navigate ball screens, knack for making the right play and wonderful 3-point capturing (42%) have develop into the spine of one in every of faculty basketball’s elite offenses. It is uncommon for any teenage guard to have that degree of success in a complete lead function, not to mention one with minimal high-level basketball below his belt. Whereas he has struggled at instances to attain contained in the arc (48.1% on twos), NBA evaluators see untapped upside as he good points power and expertise.
The massive query: How excessive can Wagler rise?
There’s an actual probability Wagler will be the second guard off the board after Peterson and crack the highest 5, relying on how the lottery falls and the way groups come to view the group of Flemings, Wagler, Darius Acuff Jr. and Mikel Brown Jr. Because the tallest, youngest and latest-blooming participant of the 4, Wagler’s uncommon trajectory and helpful archetype will create a compelling argument. Whereas a straight comparability could be unfair, Wagler has drawn stylistic similarities to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with scouts dialed in on his maturity, decision-making and craftiness as a scorer.
Illinois has a shot on the Ultimate 4 if Wagler is at his finest, and a powerful postseason might improve his case with NBA decision-makers who may not have been homed in on him early on in Chicago for the Large Ten event. His positional measurement, capturing and intangibles could possibly be important separators as lottery groups dig in on these guards.
Nate Ament, SF/PF, Tennessee
Newest rank: 7
Age: 19.2
The season up to now: Ament turned issues round in SEC play after a sluggish begin, placing collectively a wonderful stretch earlier than injuring his proper leg on Saturday towards Alabama. His standing for the postseason stays unclear after he missed Tennessee’s sport Tuesday at South Carolina, however he stabilized his place on draft boards along with his robust play in February, averaging 19 factors and 6 rebounds per sport in convention play. Nevertheless, his lack of effectivity left one thing to be desired.
Whereas the emergence of different gamers means Ament is not a top-five shoo-in, he stays a possible top-10 choose on account of his positional measurement, ability and intangibles. He can rise and shoot over defenders at 6-foot-10 and has untapped upside as he good points power and turns into extra snug along with his measurement. There is a glut of guards on this tier of the draft, and groups not looking for a ball handler might prioritize him as an addition at developmental ahead who can elevate the ability degree of a workforce’s frontcourt.
The massive query: Can Ament make a leap as a shot creator?
When Ament is making photographs, it is easy to see why he was a consensus top-five prospect coming into the season. The jumbo wing scorer archetype tends to be a straightforward NBA elevator pitch. Forwards of his measurement who can deal with, go and shoot are inclined to extra probably develop into rotation fixtures, at a minimal. The largest query round Ament is just how a lot he can enhance as a creator over time, which would require growing his deal with, footwork and capturing with extra consistency.
Ament’s play this season has made that piece of his projection a bit extra difficult: He is not an explosive athlete, he generally struggles to separate from defenders and he hasn’t completed on the rim (54%) or made 3s (32.8%) at inspiring charges. He performs upright and does not have a well-developed deal with, however groups will need to get a really feel for these items in non-public to determine his upside. Ament ought to have a protracted, profitable NBA profession regardless, with a number of reasonable development areas that would make him a long-term starter.
Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas
Newest rank: 8
Age: 19.3
The season up to now: Acuff has modified the narrative round his sport popping out of highschool, proving he’s removed from a egocentric participant by displaying his skill to share the ball, choose his spots and lead Arkansas to wins. He has put collectively a powerful season as a scorer and a distributor by limiting turnovers, making practically 43% of his 3s and elevating a workforce that does not have a lot depth or secondary playmaking round him. Acuff’s 49-point sport at Alabama on Feb. 18 helped additional cement him as a lottery expertise, and he leads the SEC in factors (22) and assists (6.2) per sport to simply two turnovers.
Though the 6-foot-3 Acuff is the smallest of the guards on this group, his power, quickness and talent to play low to the bottom with the ball give him a special kind of bodily benefit. It is arduous to cease him from getting the place he needs to go on the ground. He has been efficient scoring in any respect three ranges. And his toughness helps set the tone. The considerations are totally on protection, the place Acuff is keen to compete however does not make an enormous visible impression on the perimeter as a deterrent for opposing shooters.
The massive query: The place can Acuff separate himself from the opposite high guards?
The place Acuff falls on this pecking order stays to be seen, however he is arguably probably the most polished, which might make him a safer possibility than Flemings, Wagler or Brown. These three all have apparent upside arguments on account of their measurement and athletic traits — Acuff’s body is near maxed out — however his ball safety and talent to dictate the tempo of play are separating traits. He has been probably the most constant performer of the group this season. His fashion is not all the time as aesthetically pleasing, however there’s one thing to be mentioned for his effectiveness between the traces.
Finally, it is easy to see lottery groups choosing the perceived upside of the opposite gamers, which is one thing Acuff cannot management. However at this second in time, he’s probably the most NBA-ready of the 4 guards. He’s able to the kind of postseason run that may additional elevate his profile, and he’ll want to do this for Arkansas to win a couple of video games within the Large Dance. Whereas he cannot management how groups undertaking him bodily, this is a chance to additional strengthen his physique of labor.
Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville
Newest rank: 9
Age: 19.9
The season up to now: Brown performed his finest basketball in February after coming back from an eight-game absence on account of a again damage, serving to Louisville stabilize its spot on the NCAA event bubble. His 45-point outburst in a blowout of NC State was a spotlight in a stretch that reminded NBA groups of his high-caliber offensive expertise. Brown’s skill to knock down powerful perimeter photographs at 6-foot-5 offers him a translatable solution to assault defenses within the professionals. Nevertheless, he has been streaky for a lot of the season, partially because of the problem of his shot weight-reduction plan. Scouts regard him as a plus shooter, however he has made solely 34% on his 3s. His availability has once more come into query after he sat out Tuesday’s dwelling win versus Syracuse with extra again points.
It may be argued that Brown’s dynamic motion capturing offers him the best offensive upside of the guards outdoors of Peterson, with the power to rise in tight areas and get clear seems off the dribble from vary. Brown is also a sophisticated passer, although it hasn’t all the time translated into the help column. Gaining bodily power and being a extra constantly engaged defender will probably be crucial, however the potential that scouts raved about coming into the season is obvious.
The massive query: Which model of Brown will we see in March?
The prolonged absence restricted Brown’s alternative to spice up his profile, with different freshmen enjoying nicely within the meantime. If he can preserve his kind within the postseason highlight and proceed to remind groups of his expertise, inching again up the board may be very a lot a chance. Louisville has struggled to beat higher competitors each with and with out Brown, but it surely has the expertise to string collectively wins within the ACC and NCAA tournaments if issues break proper.
Brown is a significantly better participant when he’s affected person and appears to assault the paint first, opening up alternatives for teammates. When he is settling for powerful photographs and forcing up makes an attempt, issues have not all the time gone nicely. His ability degree is not doubtful, however reinforcing that he could make robust pass-shoot selections below strain would assist deal with among the considerations scouts nonetheless have.
Which different freshmen might go within the lottery?
The consensus across the NBA proper now could be that these 9 gamers will wind up within the lottery. There’s much less certainty across the subsequent a part of the draft however room for gamers to state their instances over the following month. The 2017 draft had probably the most freshman-heavy first spherical ever, with 11 going within the lottery and 16 chosen within the first spherical.
Steinbach (Washington), Brayden Burries (Arizona), Braylon Mullins (UConn), Chris Cenac Jr. (Houston) and Koa Peat (Arizona) are all projected first-round freshmen who might sneak into the lottery. There’s additionally a case for a few of these gamers to return and probably rise in a thinner 2027 draft class, however would all hear their names referred to as within the first spherical in the event that they entered this yr’s draft.
Of that group, Burries has constructed probably the most tangible momentum of late, rising as a go-to scorer for a prospect-heavy Arizona workforce able to profitable the nationwide title. He’s older for a freshman however is snug scoring on and off the ball and likewise has been a plus defender, giving him a well-rounded NBA ability set. Burries has totally turned it round after a sluggish begin to the season and will wind up within the again half of the lottery if issues preserve trending this manner.
